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1999 Supply and Demand Ch. 22. Wisconsin Educator Demand Information Highlights of Findings
Educators Newly Hired by Wisconsin Public Schools A profile of all the sources of newly hired educators without experience is shown in Table 4. When the out-of-state and Wisconsin prepared teachers are combined, the percentage of teachers who were hired without experience was 59 percent at the elementary level, 45 percent at the secondary level, and 46 percent in special education. The data in Table 5 shows considerable variation in the total number of educators hired each year. Considering that the growth in the public school pupil population has been very consistent, it appears that the variations in the number of newly hired teachers are often a factor more related to the economy and state policy decisions than to any large increases in pupil population. There was a large increase in 1990-1991 due to the retirement window, followed by a decrease in 1991-1992. The decrease in 1993-1994 appears to be a result of school districts being uncertain about their state funding. The increase in 1994-1995 may be the result of districts having prior knowledge of their level of state support and the rebound from the cutbacks of the previous year. Data from 1995-1996 shows a decrease in the number of newly hired teachers and this decrease continued into the 1996-1997 school year. The 1997-1998 school year had a 329 FTE increase in the number of newly hired educators, reversing the trend from the previous two years. Again in the 1998-1999 school year there was a continued increase (280) from the previous year in the number of newly hired educators. This would be expected because of the increasing number of educators reaching retirement age. Employment Projections for Educators With No Experience This report provides newly prepared teachers and those with no previous experience an estimate of their probability of employment in Wisconsin public schools by relating the current level of preparation in each subject field to the number of newly hired teachers in the state. The data in Table 6 presents the analysis for the 1998-1999 school year. Because this information is so important in describing the demand for educators in Wisconsin, a detailed explanation of the procedures used to generate the various columns of data follows. First, the number of Wisconsin prepared teachers who earned their eligibility for new licenses the previous year (column 1) is divided into the number of newly hired Wisconsin-prepared teachers hired during the current year (column 2) in that licensing field. The result is the employment projection (column 3) of teachers who are securing their first positions in that licensing field. Many of the newly hired teachers were prepared several years prior to their first employment and are also included in this projection. Since some teachers in that same licensing field are also eligible for licenses in other teaching fields, the second calculation takes into account all the teachers who have secured employment in some other field in which they may have had an additional license. This number that is shown in column 4 and the resulting percentage increase in employment is indicated in column 5. The total of all those employed who earned that license, including those teaching in the field and individuals who secured a position in some alternative field, is shown in column 6. The employment projections (column 7) of teachers holding multiple licenses is obtained by dividing all the newly hired teachers who had a license in a specific field, even if they were teaching in an alternative area (column 6), by the number of teachers who were eligible for licenses in that field the previous year (column 1). The findings of this employment analysis have generally remained relatively constant during the past half-dozen years. For example, a teacher eligible for a license in both elementary education and special education (cognitive disabilities, learning disabilities, and emotional disturbance) who secured a position as a third-grade teacher is represented in the EL (K-8) row and is one of the 1575 individuals indicated in column 1. This person has an employment projection in elementary education of 23 percent as indicated in column 3. This person also is counted in the special education licensing area in column 4, which indicates that teachers holding a cognitive disabilities, learning disabilities, or emotional disturbance license secured positions in some other field. Thus, the higher employment projection of 43 percent shown in column 7 of the special education licensing field is more representative of this individual's employment outlook. Column 5 of the EL (K-8) row indicates that 12 percent of elementary education teachers had an additional license that contributed to their employment prospects. Table 6 represents one way to present the demand for educators. The actual projection of teacher needs is so complex that a single formula can lead to errors unless related variables are considered to clarify this information. Important factors to consider in the interpretation of the table include:
The accuracy of these employability percentages is affected by the relative stability of the pupil population, consistent levels of teacher preparation, variables influencing attrition, retirement levels, and state policy decisions. Fluctuations in these factors will impact on employability. Table 6 provides a comparison of employment opportunities in the different areas of education. It is important to note that the data in this table represents newly hired, inexperienced teachers who received their preparation prior to August 31, 1998, and were employed during the 1998-1999 school year in Wisconsin Public Schools. Table 13 is a three-year average of the data in Table 6 which smoothes out the yearly fluctuations in the employability of newly hired teachers, and thus is, to an extent, a more accurate projection of the employment prospects in Wisconsin Public Schools. The data in this table demonstrates large differences in the demand for teachers in the various licensing categories. In recent years, from as few as 15 percent to as high as 100 percent of educators prepared in Wisconsin have secured positions in Wisconsin's Public Schools at some time during their life. The percentage varies considerably for different fields. Teacher attrition is one variable that is traditionally included in predicting the demand for teachers. There are many complex factors to consider when computing attrition statistics. The following are a few of the concerns that can influence the accuracy of this procedure.
Longitudinal Attrition Rates in Wisconsin Public Schools The data on teacher state exit attrition from 1989-1990 through 1997-1998 in general and special education are presented in Table 7.1. Various factors influencing the attrition rate are reflected in these data. In 1989-1990 there was a rise in the rate due to a retirement window. This was followed by a decrease in 1990-1991 when the number retiring was sharply reduced. Higher attrition in some years may reflect teacher layoffs due to tighter fiscal restraints. The rates for 1994-1995 showed a sharp increase that may be due to difficulties in validating certain data in the DPI 1994-1995 School Staff and Teacher Report. Data from the past few years have indicated that the state attrition rate for general education has been stabilizing around 6 percent with the special education area being 10 percent. The 1997-1998 state exit attrition rate for elementary education was 5.7 percent, secondary education was 6.7 percent, and special education was 6.9 percent. The high rate of transfer of special education teachers to general education fields is a variable in the higher special education field attrition rate. Table 7.2 also provides information on the mobility of teachers between fields within the Wisconsin Public Schools. Projected Total Number of Retirements in the Wisconsin Public Schools. The projected educator retirements in the smallest third, middle one third, and largest third of the public school districts, with separate data on the Milwaukee Public Schools are presented. These data were obtained by merging the 1996-1997 data file with the 1997-1998 file, providing the basis on which to project the number of educators retiring in each age cohort for the next twelve years. The birth year 1925 included all the educators at this age and older (8). The analysis did not include educators whose birth year preceded 1925 since their number (4) would have little impact. The procedure in Table 8 shows the increasing number of currently employed educators who will be reaching retirement age year by year until the school year 2011-2012. The majority of educators tend to start retiring about age 55, and the retirement of others continues through their seventies. The rationale for using the birth year 1942 as the first year in the cohort of the projection is that the number of newly hired educators drops below the number of the retirees at this age point. A complete explanation of the statistical procedures followed in the projections is described in the 1998 edition of this report (http://dpi.wi.gov/tepdl/supdem98.html). The attrition of the educators in the small, middle, and large districts is very similar. Milwaukee Public Schools has a higher attrition rate at all age levels, which reflect the fact that a greater proportion of its educators leave at earlier age levels. This explains the reason a smaller proportion of the total number of educators in the Milwaukee Public Schools will be retiring in the future years. Within the categories of the small, middle and large districts there was variability in the attrition between different districts. The reader is cautioned that the figures in Table 8 only project the older aged educators who would likely be leaving for retirement rather than the total educators who exit a district in a given year. The data in this report confirm that there will be a gradual increase in the number of educators eligible to retire, with little difference between the small, middle, and large districts. The Milwaukee Public Schools have similar retirement levels to the rest of the state even with higher attrition in the district. Since this higher attrition occurs at all age levels this balances out any higher attrition at the retirement ages by reducing the pool of older aged teachers. This higher level of retirements in Wisconsin Public Schools will continue for a period of 12 years with declining levels starting at the end of that time. The cohort of educators in the 2009-2010 school year declines in number for the first time since the 1997-1998 year. The data indicates that this decline will be modest and will continue for several years. The birth years of 1952 through 1958 show a sharp decline in the number of total staff that accounts for the declining number of retirees starting in the school year 2009-2010. The number of educators retiring will double from 1997-1998 by the year 2004-2005 and continue increasing until the school year 2008-2009. Figure 2 Projected Total Number of Educators to Retire from the School Year 1997-1998 through 2011-2012
The different tables have two databases (since different statistics require different analyses). The FTE statistic is more accurate in understanding the number of educators in each field, and the head count is more appropriate to use in determining attrition statistics. The differences in the two databases are that the older population of educators analyzed in this study was of an age where few were employed less than full-tim. The head count for the cohort of educators over 54 was only 3.0 percent larger and the 60-and-over cohort was only 3.5 percent larger. The high proportion of older educators who are employed on a full-time basis is in contrast to the many newly hired secondary teachers who receive only part-time positions. The DPI database used in this analysis was relatively complete. All districts reported data for the 1997-1998 school year. A small error factor was that a total of 145 of the teachers that stayed, 169 that left, and 80 that were new had either two different birth years on the records or no birth year reported. These educators could not be included in the analysis. Active Pool of Candidates for Positions in Selected Public School Districts An analysis of the applications of the candidates for positions in five select school districts was used to estimate the reserve pool of teachers. The same districts used in the 1996 edition of this report were used for comparison purposes. The number of applicants in the 1998 pool was smaller than the pool in the 1995 sample, suggesting an improving employment outlook for educators. The analysis can provide data concerning the relocation of personnel, sources of the cohort of candidates, size of the active pool of candidates, and information about variables that determine the decision to apply for a particular position. The districts selected represent a wide range of pupil populations and geographical regions of the state. The districts ranged in 1997-1998 pupil enrollment from 1261 to 19472. Since most of the population is in the southeastern area of the state the districts selected represent this factor. Kenosha is a large district representing a border city with Illinois and has a diverse and stable pupil population. Waukesha is a suburban city and also has a declining pupil population. Reedsburg is a city in the south-central part of the state with a growing population. Palmyra-Eagle is a small community in rural southeastern Wisconsin. Ladysmith-Hawkins is a small community in the northwestern area of the state and has had declining pupil enrollment. These five districts made available to the researchers the data used in the analysis. The teaching vacancies in each selected district and the number of applications considered for these positions are shown in Table 9. The Kenosha District requires a completed application form, a credential file or three letters of reference, college transcripts, and a technology self-assessment form. The Waukesha District has set two criteria that must be met before the candidate's application can be placed in the active file. These criteria include a Wisconsin Teaching License or the verification of the application for the License and a completed District application form. An example of the gap between expressions of interest in a given position and the number of completed applications is found in the Waukesha District where there were only thirteen applications for the one English position yet there were 43 other applications in the incomplete file. For the physical education positions there were 46 applications in the complete file and an additional 35 in the incomplete file. Many applicants have licenses in more than one teaching field; this was very evident in the area of special education. The procedure followed in this analysis was to count the application only in the subject field file folder that held the application thus avoiding a duplicated count. In the field of special education as many as 35 teachers in one district were listed as candidates in more than one teaching field. The analysis of applications provides information on the geographical mobility of educators. The Reedsburg applicants had 21.3 percent on the candidates listing a home address in states other than Wisconsin. Forty-eight were from Minnesota, followed by 20 from Illinois, with 14 from Michigan, and 10 from as far away as Texas. The large proportion from Minnesota may reflect the reciprocity tuition agreement in the state-supported institutions. A similar pattern was found in the other districts with the exception of Kenosha that had a larger proportion of candidates from Illinois due to its location on the border. Some other trends evident in the data were that those teaching fields traditionally staffed by males had a higher proportion of out-of-state applicants. As an example over 50 percent of the Kenosha social studies, 45 percent of the technology education and 41 percent of the math applicants were from out-of-state. In all the districts the percentage of elementary education applicants, which are mainly female, from out-of -state was generally much lower than in other subject fields. The Department of Public Instruction Web-site on vacancies in the Wisconsin Public Schools was frequently listed as the source of information that the candidate followed in contacting the district for the position. The zip codes from the current addresses of all the candidates in each of the five districts were recorded. These zip codes were plotted on maps so that the pattern of the location on the pool of candidates could be portrayed. The maps are broken down showing both the mid-western profiles as well as a national picture. Figure 3 National Map of Applications for Total Teaching Positions in the Kenosha Public Schools
Some comments can be made about the data in Table 9. The teaching fields that another analysis in this report has identified as having a surplus of educators generally had the largest number of applicants. A unique finding was that Kenosha had vacancies in a special Asian language program with several candidates for each position. The first two figures show the national profile of the applications for positions in the Kenosha Public Schools and the Reedsburg Public Schools. The largest concentrations of candidates come from Wisconsin and the surrounding states. Figure 4 National Map of Applications for Positions in the Reedsburg Public Schools
The pattern of elementary education applications is shown on maps in three districts in Figure 5. The national picture is not shown because only a small proportion of the candidates comes from out-of-state. The three districts shown are Kenosha, Waukesha, and Palymra/Eagle. The Kenosha district had 73 percent of their applicants list addresses within 35 miles of the district, many of these being from Illinois. The Waukesha district had 66 percent of the applicants living within 35 miles of the district, only 11 percent being from out-of-state. The Palmyra/Eagle district had 50 percent of the candidates listing addresses within 35 miles of the district. Elementary education teachers showed less mobility in seeking employment. Figure 5 Maps of Candidates for Elementary Education Positions in Three Select Districts
Kenosha Secondary and Specialty Subject Fields Candidates
The secondary and specialty subject fields generally have a higher proportion of candidates who showed more mobility to relocate. However, these fields have less positions available compared to elementary education which has many more openings in a much larger number of districts. Figure 6 shows the secondary/specialty candidates for positions in the Kenosha District. The distribution of candidates shows that 74 percent lived within 200 miles of the district, 70 percent within 100 miles, and 51 percent within 50 miles. The field of technology education, which has a serious shortage of teachers in Wisconsin, had 10 of 22 applicants from other states for the position in the Kenosha district. Figure 7 The Pattern in a Rural District and a Special Education Distribution
The field of special education has a similar pattern of distribution of candidates as the field of elementary education. This is shown for the Waukesha District in Figure 7. Also shown in Figure 7 is the distribution of all the candidates for positions in the Ladysmith/Hawkins district. This district is in a very rural area of the state and the candidates are more dispersed. This district had 71 percent of the candidates living within 100 miles of the district. Phone Follow-up of Candidates for Positions A phone follow-up was made of a limited sample of candidates from three of the districts studied in the analysis of applications. The sample was too limited to permit broad generalizations, yet it does provide some information about areas not covered in the statistical analysis of this report. There were 32 respondents out of a sample of 93 who were located and responded to the survey. Summary findings are as follows:
Employment Trends of Teachers Hired on a Part-Time Basis The 1998-1999 database permitted the tabulation of educational positions by full-time equivalents (FTE). This information makes it possible to investigate the number of educators who find full-time versus part-time employment. Many teachers are hired on a part-time basis since in certain subject fields a district may only need a teacher for one or two classes. Middle and high school programs are not self-contained and are composed of those who teach in discreet subject fields, and small districts may offer fewer sections of some subjects compared to large districts. This analysis attempts to answer the extent to which these teachers increase or decrease their percentage of employment in future years. Four years of personnel records were used for this analysis, providing a longitudinal picture of the changing employment status. This analysis included only teachers and did not include any administrative positions or related services areas. Tables 10.1 and 10.2 present information for teachers who most frequently earn only one license and do not have the flexibility to teach in more than one subject field. Tables 10.3 and 10.4 show exit attrition for teachers in Wisconsin Public Schools and the employment status of teachers who most frequently have more than one license after one year of service and after two years of service. In each of the four tables two years of data are used to smooth out yearly variations in the numbers. The FTE counts were combined for teachers who held a position in more than one district or were teaching in more than one subject field. Thus the figures represent the total Wisconsin Public School employment of the newly hired educators over a one and two year period. The footnotes in the tables list the separate teaching fields that are included for the teachers with multiple licenses and those who in all likelihood have only one license. Explanations of the data are included under each table. The data shows some clear trends. First, Tables 10.3 and 10.4 show that educators in part-time employment with multiple licenses tend to move to full-time positions to a greater extent than educators with single licenses do (Tables 10.1 and 10.2). Second, generally speaking there is a clear trend for educators hired on a part-time basis to improve their percentage of employment in subsequent years. Third, state exit attrition is generally higher for all teachers who are initially hired in part-time positions. Figure 8 Comparison of Employment Status of Teachers With Single and Multiple Licenses One and Two Years after Initial Employment
Projecting the Number of Newly Prepared Education Personnel Needed for the Next Five Years Attrition statistics have been used in the past projections of the future need for educators in Wisconsin and have resulted in inaccurate projections. This has occurred because of policy decisions relating to a retirement window and changes in fiscal policies relating to the funding of school districts. The projection used in this report will follow the new-hires model. The new-hires model is similar to the analysis shown in Table 6 except that the numbers in the tables are averaged over a three-year period to reduce the effect of yearly fluctuations in the data (Table 11). The advantage of this approach is that many of the error factors that can influence the outcome of the traditional design occur to a lesser extent in this model. The procedure followed in this model is to merge the total state database for the given year and the previous year and identify all the newly hired inexperienced teachers for the given year. There are many advantages to this methodology that make it worthy of consideration. There is no need to find the attrition for each subject field since this is a variable of the figure that represents the number of new hires. Also, any enrollment fluctuations, economic factors, or state policy decisions are reflected in the new-hires statistic. The averaging over three years reduces the effect of any one-year surge or decline. Any identifiable and predictable changes in these variables can be incorporated in the new projection to increase the accuracy of this methodology. The projections used in this report will not require modifications in the methodology because there is no evidence that there has been a change in the pupil-teacher ratio, state fiscal policies have stabilized, and the pupil enrollment has had a modest decrease this past year. The number of additional personnel that will be needed for Wisconsin's Public Schools in future years largely depends on enrollment and retirement projections. Past reports have carefully analyzed several variables (birth rate statistics, private school enrollment, and changes in the state's public school enrollment) to measure their impact on future educator needs. These analyses are not included in this 1999 report since past studies have shown these variables to be relatively stable and thus have not influenced the projections. The retirement projections will gradually increase the need for additional educators for the next ten years. The National Center for Educational Statistics (1998) provides a state assessment of the projected public school enrollment through the year 2008; during this period a slight decline in the Wisconsin K-12 public school enrollment is anticipated. Evidence of this trend has started and will reduce the demand for educators in many districts. A figure showing these data is included in the 1997 edition of this report and is not included in this edition since the projection remains the same. It should be noted that Wisconsin has had the largest decline in enrollment in the northern and western areas of the state while most southeastern districts have shown an increase in pupil enrollment. The data that most accurately projects the number of new teachers that need to be trained each year is seen in Column 8 of Table 11. This number represents the average number of new inexperienced Wisconsin prepared teachers hired by Wisconsin Public Schools in their teaching field over the past three years. A proportion of newly prepared teachers choose not to enter teaching, leave the state for employment, are geographically restricted, or accept employment in non-public schools or as substitute teachers. To account for these factors the state colleges and universities must prepare more teachers than the minimal number shown in Column 8 of Table 11. Dividing the number of newly prepared teachers by 50 percent, which will increase the numbers to account for these factors, can make this adjustment. This percentage is based on the professional judgment of the researcher to determine a realistic projection of the number of teachers that should be prepared to meet the needs of the state. The effect of this procedure results in the preparation of two teachers for each position that has been traditionally filled by new inexperienced teachers. The reader is further cautioned that other variables such as high attrition and strong demand in specific fields need to be addressed in the projections.
Last updated on 12/6/2010 1:30:06 PM |
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Supply & Demand of Educational Personnel for Wisconsin Public Schools, 1999 |
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State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers
Department of Public Instruction, 125 S. Webster Street, P.O. Box 7841, Madison, WI 53707-7841 (800) 441-4563 DPI Home |